A Manifesto for World Cricket
Russell Degnan

Previously: Part 1 a b c d e f g h

Part 2. Guiding Principles

Aims are not, by themselves, sufficient to produce a plan of action. They must be balanced against one another, striking a balance between the financial forces that drive the game forward, the emotion and history that make it great, and the logistics of scheduling games across three formats, diverse seasonal conditions and a seemingly infinite number of competitions.

The second part of this manifesto will deal with those issues, developing an over-arching competitive structure to produce competitive and meaningful fixtures, a domestic schedule to rationalise the existing mess of international tours and, now lucrative and expansionistic, domestic cricket seasons, and some general principles of tournament play to ensure fairness.


Part 2a. Structural pillars

The international side of the game has always been at the centre, and it is that that needs straightening first. The recent FTP driven expansion of the fixture list has not been kind to the sport, burning out players and fans alike on meaningless games. As a corrective I propose that the international fixture list be pared back to a handful of core fixtures played over a four year cycle: world and regional championships in each format and the marquee test tours.

There are a number of reasons why this is both desirable and possible. Firstly, the emergence of domestic T20 leagues reduces the need for money spinning limited overs friendlies to generate revenue. Given they have been, for a long time, merely used to prepare for the world cup and champions trophy, their almost complete removal will be lamented by few and will open up much needed space in the schedule.

Secondly, the expansion of world cup places to minnows has resulted in a bloated tournament while delivering only limited development opportunities. Pushing the development emphasis to a regional level allows both more opportunities to the smaller nations and a tighter, better world cup.

Thirdly, many lament the lack of interest in test cricket outside the major teams. In reality, the fans of those nations recognise those tours for what they are: perfunctory obligations of little value. Structuring the vast bulk of test matches into year long tournaments, and freeing them from the burden of short series should both increase the interest in test cricket in those nations and, as above, free up scheduling space for T20 games that will vastly improve the financial status of players in those nations.

Finally, by scheduling for marquee series every second season, there is ample room to continue playing those traditional series, such as the Ashes, upon which much of cricket's heritage, and no little interest or money, rests.


A final word then, on the future of one day cricket. As someone who gave up watching it some years ago, I was tempted to expunge it from the schedule entirely. That would be presumptuous and premature. The fact remains however, that ODI cricket is faced with dwindling interest and numerous challenges. Something that should be obvious from the rule tinkering that has beset the game of late. It has few core supporters, being neither as short or action packed as the t20 game so loved by the general public, nor as stern a test of character as the preferred format of the purist. Like games of professional vs players, or xxii vs xi, its time has passed. I suspect the only real question is how long will it linger.

Idle Summers 30th January, 2010 21:09:02   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 29th January 2010
Russell Degnan

An adjustment to the non-test team initial ratings this week. Teams with ODI status (and the USA) begin on 300, the others on 150. The major change is to push the minnows (of the minnows) downwards.

Recently completed matches

2nd TestBangladeshvIndia
Pre-rating590.801211.48
Form+51.16+26.15
Expected MarginIndia by 260 runs
Actual MarginIndia by 10 wickets
Post-rating605.061210.60

Given how dominant India was expected to be, the main interest in this game was whether Bangladesh could continue their gradual improvement in play. And they did, sort of. At 5/51 the game was effectively over, but their lower order has the ability to innings of substance, not just the haphazard cameos of the top order. Still, when India reached 2/421 in response the main point of interest was whether they could force the innings and 12 run defeat they needed to push back above Australia in the rankings. For a moment, with Tamin Iqbal blitzing at one end, and India facing a small chase with two batsmen injured, maybe, just maybe Bangladesh could make something of this game. No sooner had the thought crossed the minds of those watching than they lost 7/22. No team can overcome that kind of collapse. Bangladesh need to learn to concentrate, for days, not sessions, to grind out wins. India, perhaps are a step too far anyway, but Bangladesh's good moments are better than those of some of their poorly ranked rivals; unfortunately their worst moments are very much worse, and that will hurt them. The forthcoming tour to New Zealand will be a more interesting contest.


I-Shield MatchUnited Arab EmiratesvUganda
Pre-rating151.23281.26
Form+14.57+4.17
Expected MarginUganda by 15 runs
Actual MarginMatch Drawn
Post-rating155.26280.54

The U.A.E. will feel hard done by after this match, having failed to secure first innings points or a full victory, despite being wel placed to achieve both. Uganda's collapses offered both opportunities to the opposition, losting 4/5 in the first innings when just 29 runs from their target, but saved by Nsubuga, and 5/12 in the second, before the same batsman, along with Ssemanda and Ziraba saved them from an inglorious defeat. The U.A.E. should equally regret wasting their chance to attack, with a 200 run lead in the second innings and 70 odd overs to play, the chance was there to set Uganda something chaseable from more than the 43 overs they left themselves. Both sides are well placed for a rematch in the final.


I-Cup MatchAfghanistanvIreland
Pre-rating305.38564.78
Form+10.77+30.82
Expected MarginIreland by 130 runs
Actual MarginAfghanistan by 7 wickets
Post-rating336.95554.16

An upset of sorts, that puts tremendous pressure on Ireland to qualify for the final. But for those following Afghan cricket, merely another sign that they are likely to be a force in Asia sooner rather than later - notwithstanding the immense difficulties they have playing in the country. A rel team performance from Afghanistan, with particular note of Mohammad Nabi's all-round performance (64 and 4/33). A lack of penetration in the Irish bowling and an untimely collapse at the start of the fourth day sealed the contest for AfghanistanThe sort of competitive fixture that both sides need more of as thei games develop.


I-Cup MatchKenyavScotland
Pre-rating365.73450.76
Form+45.42+23.36
Expected MarginKenya by 7 runs
Actual MarginScotland by 8 wickets
Post-rating351.54470.23

A game decided on the opening day when the Scots ground their way relentlessly through the Kenyan batting - the slow motion collapse of 7/17 taking 25 overs to complete. Kenya's second innings was better with Ouma making a ton, but they lost wickets too regularly, and often failed to keep the scoreboard ticking over despite some lengthy knocks (notably Varaiya who took 237 balls to make his 44). Scotland back on top of the table, and closing a little on Ireland in the rankings.


Forthcoming series

2 TestsIndiavSouth Africa
Pre-rating1210.601186.53
Form+17.87+0.27
Expected MarginIndia by 62 runs

Organised in a rush to take advantage of India's number one status, this series is an abomination against sensible scheduling. Nevertheless, it might still produce some interesting cricket. South Africa's recent form slump and India's home advantage are balanced against an excellent record for the tourists and some injuries in the home team. At least one game is likely to serve up a mountain of runs, but expect India to win the other.


Rankings at 29th January 2010
1.Australia1211.56
2.India1210.60
3.South Africa1186.53
4.England1129.63
5.Sri Lanka1103.96
6.Pakistan1077.62
7.New Zealand942.04
8.West Indies926.27
9.Bangladesh605.06
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland554.16
12.Scotland470.23
13.Namibia364.81
14.Kenya351.54
15.Afghanistan336.95
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.54
18.Netherlands230.88
19.Canada188.31
20.Nepal179.54
21.Bermuda170.84
22.U.A.E.155.26
23.Hong Kong147.15
24.Cayman Is134.24
25.Malaysia108.49

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 30th January, 2010 01:54:16   [#] [0 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CLXXXV, January 2010
Russell Degnan

Crescent and moon, Carlton North. Taken January 2010

Melbourne Town 26th January, 2010 13:22:51   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 21st January 2010
Russell Degnan

Recently completed matches

3rd TestAustraliavPakistan
Pre-ratings1209.301077.62
Form-12.29+6.67
Expected MarginAustralia by 116 runs
Actual MarginAustralia by 231 runs
Post-ratings1211.561073.90

A dead rubber, between a dispirited and deeply negative opponent, and an Australian side that, if nothing else, can still kick a team when its down. Things may have been different if Ponting's reckless pull shot on nought had not gone to ground, but Australia's summer is best summarised as mediocre cricket against two sides eager to self-destruct. For Pakistan, inexperienced and still feeling their way back into the test arena, this series will hopefully be a learning experience. Their talent is being squandered on daft dismissals, poor fielding and negative cricket. Test cricket is about patience and consistency of performance, and Pakistan have neither.

Perhaps the big winner from this series will be England, now likely to face the same aging and brittle batting line-up that failed so badly last year. With both sides playing with one eye on the Ashes, the failure of Australia's selectors to redress glaring problems could haunt them badly come December.


4th TestSouth AfricavEngland
Pre-rating1168.451142.19
Form-47.88+36.20
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 63 runs
Actual MarginSouth Africa by an innings and 74 runs
Post-rating1186.531129.63

South Africa might breathe a sigh of relief that, finally, their bowling breached the English defences. They'll feel, having failed twice to close out games, that the 1-1 scoreline isn't reflective of their dominance over-all. There is, however, a reason that chess puzzles focus on the end-game. South Africa should look take a hard look at the composition of their side, which, talented as it is, isn't getting the results it might. The batsmen are too often getting out for middling scores and scoring slowly when big tons and attack are required. The bowling is good, but they seem to play within themselves, going through the motions waiting for something to happen. Great sides make something happen.

England too, should look at their side. The number 3 position is still problematic, and only the grit of Collingwood and Bell in the middle order prevented this series being a sound defeat. The bowling too is weak, lacking the power to prize out wickets on unhelpful decks, and, much as Swann has been a revelation, he, like his fellow trundlers, averages on the wrong side of 30. They showed strength of character, however, and for that alone will feel they have got something out of this series.


1st TestBangladeshvIndia
Pre-rating571.361215.55
Form+49.09+45.74
Expected MarginIndia by 272 runs
Actual MarginIndia by 113 runs
Post-rating590.801211.48

The rise and rise of Bangladesh. Those who remember the seemingly endless string of innings defeats will know what I am talking about. A ratings system, like mine, that focuses on the margin of defeat can't help but note that Bangladesh are accelerating towards a respectable rating under Shakib Al Hasan. Sure, their batsmen still play pathetic shots - none more so than Mohammad Ashraful - but their captain believes in them, vowing, to the general mirth of reporters, to push for an unlikely victory chasing 415, and via a brilliant century by Mushfiqur Rahim, continuing to go for the win even when all seemed lost. Perhaps noone cares, but my mirth was there when the arrogantly proclaimed number 1 team in the world failed, by just 2 runs, to defend that spot under my system. No doubt they will get it back, but it remains a disputed title, mathematically, not emphatically the case.

Despite easing to victory, India have their worries. Their batting failed here, Tendulkar and Gambhir aside. Perhaps it was arrogance (certainly on Sehwag's part), and can be discarded as such, but a similar performance against South Africa in a month would see them lose. Bangladesh still search for that elusive big name win, but it gets closer, as the consistency of their performances improves, so too do their chances of achieving it.

Forthcoming series

I-Shield MatchUnited Arab EmiratesvUganda
Pre-rating163.02281.36
Form+12.48+4.36
Expected MarginUganda by 9 runs

With neither side playing very often, the predicted closeness of this match is probably worthless, but likely accurate. The U.A.E. defeated reigning I-Cup finalist Namibia in their last match and are likely better than their rating reflects. Uganda, I know little about, except that their players like defecting, and they are regarded as an emerging nation with some reasonable results to show for it.


I-Cup MatchAfghanistanvIreland
Pre-rating211.43567.26
Form+22.85+31.10
Expected MarginIreland by 178 runs

An intriguing match-up between the best team amongst the associates and the fastest improver. Ireland will be slightly under-strength, suffering from recent retirements, injuries and English defections, but have Niall O'Brien and Porterfield. They will also be keen, having drawn their previous games and in need of a win. Afghanistan are quickly proving their mettle, having drawn with Zimbabwe and beaten the Netherlands by a single wicket. The neutral Sri Lankan wicket should nevertheless favour the Afghans. With the ratings unable to adequately reflect sides that play so rarely expect a surprise.

I-Cup MatchKenyavScotland
Pre-rating367.28452.49
Form+46.01+23.70
Expected MarginKenya by 7 runs

Also an intriguing game, between the top two sides on the table. Kenya have fallen in recent years, their best players aging or retired, and the youth not up to the same standard. Nevertheless, while Scotland might count themselves fortunate to have scraped a win and draw to date, Kenya annihilated Canada and were not out of it when the game ended against the Irish. Tikolo remains the key, given his ability to hit big hundreds (a rarity at this level) and take crucial wickets. If he is in form, at home, Kenya should win.

Rankings at 21st January 2010
1.Australia1211.56
2.India1211.48
3.South Africa1186.53
4.England1129.63
5.Sri Lanka1103.96
6.Pakistan1077.62
7.New Zealand942.04
8.West Indies926.27
9.Bangladesh590.80
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland567.26
12.Scotland452.49
13.Namibia370.03
14.Kenya367.28
15.Nepal313.16
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda281.36
18.Malaysia251.70
19.Netherlands231.18
20.Afghanistan211.43
21.Hong Kong196.03
22.Canada190.58
23.Cayman Is180.41
24.Bermuda172.66
25.U.A.E.163.02

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 21st January, 2010 13:18:48   [#] [0 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CLXXXIV, January 2010
Russell Degnan

Old St. James and a partially dismantled wheel. Taken September 2009

Melbourne Town 19th January, 2010 22:44:52   [#] [0 comments] 

Facebook tells me you`re stalking me
Russell Degnan

Having finally succumbed to the realisation that the only way to know what is happening anymore is to read people's facebook pages, it is expected therefore, that, as a blogger, I will immediately talk about facebook here.

No doubt I am not the first to note this, but as a latecomer to the facebook phenomenon, and as someone with an unusual, if not perfectly unique name, I probably notice it more than most, and as someone who takes privacy seriously, I find it objectionable. Facebook is almost certainly recording searches.

Consider: the original list of friends I added was very short, almost exclusively people I see regularly, all of whom were culled from other friends lists. Yet, somehow, while recommending people, even before I'd added a single friend, facebook was able to identify a former housemate, five bloggers I know in real life, three people I know from university, a former workmate, and a former student, without them being friends with (or even knowing) anybody on my friends list. And did so with uncanny accuracy - much more accurately than identifying mutual friendship networks.

In all cases, it would be no great surprise if they'd searched for me, but it is a questionable practice to tell me, effectively, that this is happening.

Not least because: who have I been stalking?

Passing Fancy 14th January, 2010 21:00:38   [#] [3 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CLXXXIII, January 2010
Russell Degnan

Angelo Lane. Taken December 2007

Melbourne Town 12th January, 2010 18:51:08   [#] [0 comments] 

Two-faced Australia
Russell Degnan

Following on from my comments on Australia's propensity to collapse in the last ratings, TonyT notes that it has become so obvious that even the selectors have pointed it out. Following Tony's lead, I'll also restate what I said a year ago:

"Ponting is proud, so surrendering the number three slot is against his nature, but the number of collapses in the past year has been alarming."

Why are others so slow on the uptake? Why is it only now that people are noticing that no less that with the exception of the openers, the top six are unreliable, with Haddin, Clarke and North, in particular prone to making runs only off the sturdiest of platforms. Partly, it is because averages hide those fallibilities. All of the batsmen average around 40 to 50 over the past two years, which is reasonable enough. The sides average total is solid enough and no worse than most others. The problem lies in the distribution.

The graph above shows the score distribution for each of the nine test teams [1]. A comparison with England is most pertinent. England have what you'd expect a side to have: a roughly normal distribution of scores, centred around 330, with most of their scores roughly 150 runs on either side of this. Australia however, while at or near the top in scoring between 400 and 700, are near the bottom for scores between 250 and 350, and in the midst of the cellar dwellers for scores below 200.

The pronounced double peak indicates a batting lineup incapable of playing sensible innings in poor conditions - a problem shared by New Zealand and Pakistan. The top peak produces batting averages that hide a soft middle order. One that will turn a poor session into a disastrous one, and is subsequently incapable of winning series against good sides who don't have those bad sessions, and who can merely wait for the opportunity they'll invariably be presented with.

Australia's batting, in other words, is in serious trouble.

Update: Much of the above is wrong, or partly wrong, because of the distribution of very large scores. The graph below shows things a little better, and it isn't any prettier for Australia. [2]

Note that Australia have the worst record of any major (top 5) side for making between 170 and 290 (the collapse problem), but are getting to 400 at roughly the same rate as everyone (and well in front of England who don't make a lot of scores over 300). What is more noticeable in this graph is that Australia is failing to make very large scores (500-600) at the same rate as the other sides in the top-4. This is a consequence of having a lineup seemingly incapable of very large centuries, but it makes it doubly hard to rescue a game from a sub-300 first innings total.

[1] Each score has been converted to a normal distribution centred on that score, summed, then expressed as a percentage. Uncompleted innings have been projected forward.

[2] This shows a cumulative distribution, essentially the percentage (x8) of times a side is bowled out for less than that score.

Idle Summers 11th January, 2010 23:12:39   [#] [2 comments] 

Ratings - 8th January 2010
Russell Degnan

Recently completed matches

2nd TestAustraliavPakistan
Pre-ratings1214.301073.01
Form-9.13-3.40
Expected MarginAustralia by 121 runs
Actual MarginAustralia by 36 runs
Post-ratings1209.301077.62

Could almost cut and paste last week's note on Ponting in here, but instead I'll focus on the batting order. It is hard to fathom ho the selectors have persisted with this lineup for so long, given the results. In just 27 tests, Australia has been bowled out for 215 or less no less than 11 times. 6 times in 13 tests over the past 12 months. A general ineptitude against the swinging ball, a lot of ordinary form (Ponting, North, Hussey, Hughes and Haddin all average no better than 40) and a tendency to play completely inappropriate shots, has produced a team capable of scoring big on occasion, but all too frequently fail completely. The team needs players capable of mature controlled innings - Klinger being the obvious candidate - that can hold the innings together, and build a total that will keep them in the game long enough for the mercurial batsmen and bowlers to find form.

What went wrong for Pakistan? No team should lose from that position. Credit to Mohammed Yousuf for taking the blame for his injudicious shot, but he was part of a large club, and his captaincy was severely lacking in several areas: notably defensiveness in the field to Hussey and Siddle, and an inability to get his players to keep their heads down and work for the win. To toss this game away - almost from the moment one of the most controlled and sensible opening stands I have seen in a long time ended - was unforgivable.

3rd TestSouth AfricavEngland
Pre-rating1185.331129.49
Form-56.41+43.22
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 78 runs
Actual MarginMatch drawn
Post-rating1168.451142.19

As with Australia, you could cut and paste last week's comment. An English team with fight is a dangerous thing, and in Collingwood and Strauss they have players capable of grinding out draws when required. Bell remains an enigma, playing here the game of his career, but in both innings, throwing it away at crucial times. The bowling continues to flounder on unhelpful pitches, but, like the batting, they grind away and stay in the game for just long enough. Close again, but still no win for South Africa. Now facing the prospect of losing their second consecutive home series. They didn't do much wrong, but they lack the killer instinct at key times (notably at 2/261 when a rapid acceleration was called for). Until they learn that they will remain short of the best side.


Forthcoming series

2nd TestBangladeshvIndia
Pre-rating571.361215.55
Form+49.09+45.74
Expected MarginIndia by 272 runs

Two teams on the improve. India will be fortunate if they can maintain their rating against a Bangladeshi side that, under Shakib has come along well recently. Even so, a typically one-sided encounter is on the cards.


Rankings at 8th January 2010
1.India1215.55
2.Australia1209.30
3.South Africa1168.45
4.England1142.19
5.Sri Lanka1103.96
6.Pakistan1077.62
7.New Zealand942.04
8.West Indies926.27
9.Bangladesh571.36
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland567.26
12.Scotland452.49
13.Namibia370.03
14.Kenya367.28
15.Nepal313.16
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda281.36
18.Malaysia251.70
19.Netherlands231.18
20.Afghanistan211.43
21.Hong Kong196.03
22.Canada190.58
23.Cayman Is180.41
24.Bermuda172.66
25.U.A.E.163.02

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 9th January, 2010 12:31:49   [#] [0 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CLXXXII, January 2010
Russell Degnan

From South Bank. Taken July 2009

Melbourne Town 4th January, 2010 07:18:43   [#] [0 comments] 

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