Ratings - 29th July 2010
Russell Degnan

Recently completed matches

1st TestSri LankavIndia
Pre-rating1103.961209.48
Form-35.01+13.53
Expected MarginIndia by 3 runs
Actual MarginSri Lanka by 10 wickets
Post-rating1116.741198.36

I said before this match that Sri Lanka would need to unearth a freak to undo India, conveniently forgetting that their existing freak had one left in him. Murali's 800th wicket had an unsettlingly contrived feel to it, but you can't fault his first innings effort, nor that other freak Malinga's comeback performance to bowl out India on a good pitch. India's bowling was expected to be weak, but the lack of spark indicates a surprising lack of depth in the absence of Zaheer Khan. How Sri Lanka will fare in the post-Murali third epoch of their relatively short test history will show whether they have genuine depth themselves, or were merely blessed by an unusual talent.

2nd TestPakistanvAustralia
Pre-rating1069.171225.33
Form-10.03+12.41
Expected MarginAustralia by 78 runs
Actual MarginPakistan by 3 wickets
Post-rating1076.831220.57

A fascinating match from the opening session to the last. Pakistan, by rights, should have won easily after Australia's collapse on the first morning. Their batting is unable to put a game away however, and a series of poor shots almost saw them fall agonisingly short again. All the signs were there for Australia's abysmal start: the batting has been erratically poor for years, with numerous collapses, they've been exposed repeatedly in swinging and seaming conditions (even if the conditions were never as unplayable as the Australian batsmen made them look), and the Pakistan bowling, led by the brilliant Asif and a potential great in Aamer, is ideally suited to English conditions.

While the Australian batting remains the weak-point, even if seems to remain immune to selectorial change, the bowling hardly covered itself in glory, despite the low scores. Johnson remains an erratic performer, interspersing complete rubbish with unplayable balls, Hilfenhaus was returning from injury, but did little in ideal conditions, and neither Bollinger nor Smith impressed overly. Perhaps the only player who truly performed was Paine, holding the bat competently (if not prolifically) and the gloves superbly (if not perfectly) to stake a claim for the Indian tour in November.

For Pakistan, Butt captained poorly, but at least had the players moving in the right direction, and led from the front with the bat. A drawn series is substantially better than they'd have expected, and they ought to be competitive against England if the weather stays favourable. Doubly so if their batsmen learn to knuckle down.

Finally neutral tests appear to be a much less viable prospect than mooted in England. While Lord's had a decent crowd, particular for Australia where the ex-pat supporter base is at least as large as that of Pakistan, Headingley was a financial disaster. The idea that a neutral test championship would be anything less than a gimmick is laughable.

Forthcoming matches

4 TestsEnglandvPakistan
Pre-rating1127.081076.83
Form-1.72+7.79
Expected MarginEngland by 75 runs

With England at home, the margin is nearly identical to that of the recent games against Australia. I expect England to perform much better than Australia, however. While their recent form is lamentable, their overall demeanor is of a side on the up, while their familiarity with the conditions with bat and ball ought to put them in good stead, regardless of the Pakistani skills (though their efforts last year at Headingley suggest otherwise). Pakistan cannot expect to bowl the opposition out for less than a hundred in every game, and are therefore highly unlikely to have the runs to take any wins. While the weather is always an issue in England, a 4-0 result to England wouldn't be a huge surprise either. Hopefully Pakistan can prove me wrong.


Rankings at 29th July 2010
1.Australia1220.57
2.India1198.36
3.South Africa1193.34
4.England1125.95
5.Sri Lanka1116.74
6.Pakistan1076.83
7.West Indies919.14
8.New Zealand917.91
9.Bangladesh638.24
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland547.06
12.Scotland477.92
13.Namibia378.09
14.Afghanistan362.06
15.Kenya351.46
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.48
18.Netherlands210.64
19.Nepal196.51
20.U.A.E.182.53
21.Canada177.28
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 30th July, 2010 01:21:59   [#] [4 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CCIX, July 2010
Russell Degnan

Rialto Towers. Taken September 2003

Melbourne Town 29th July, 2010 22:35:25   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 19th July 2010
Russell Degnan

Recently completed matches

2 TestsPakistanvAustralia
Pre-rating1073.881220.38
Form-2.46+10.09
Expected MarginAustralia by 73 runs
Actual MarginAustralia by 150 runs
Post-rating1069.171225.33

A drama-ridden but eminently predictable plot. Australia collapsed for the umpteenth time in the past two and a half years, with only Katich willing to grind out the runs in difficult conditions. Failures at the top of the order haven't been unusual even when Australia was winning, but brittleness of the tail in swinging conditions is a marked change. In the second innings the tail performed better, particularly Paine, whose sound keeping showed Haddin's limitations at least as much as Haddin's repeated bungling. As expected though, Pakistan's batting line-up folded lamely, especially given the identities of the bowlers who etched their names on the new neutral honours board at Lord's. The inability of the Australian quicks to take wickets in favourable conditions should actually be a worry for the selectors, even if Pakistan's collective brain-fades allow Australia to continue their winning run.

For Pakistan, captain-less, seemingly always rudder-less, and playing more kids than a country town second XI, the three games in the next month promise to be difficult. Their best hope is that some of their team break out - as Aamer already seems to be - to give them something to look forward to. The alternative, an increasingly chaotic series of dispiriting losses and abject batting displays won't be much fun for anyone.


Forthcoming matches

3 TestsSri LankavIndia
Pre-rating1103.961209.48
Form-35.01+13.53
Expected MarginIndia by 3 runs

Rated as an exceptionally close series, albeit one where Sri Lanka are entering with appalling form. The slight overlap with the Australia-Pakistan games will continue to throw my start dates off, but so be it. India's injury worries, Sri Lanka's slowly weakening bowling attack, and most likely terribly flat pitches point to a lot of drawn games. However, I suspect Sehwag will buy India enough time to force a narrow win at least once. Unless Sri Lanka unearth another bowling freak-show to bemuse the Indian batting, it is hard to see Sri Lanka taking enough wickets to win themselves. While the cricket may be dull, a decent win for India should see them back on top of the rankings, so there is something to play for, even between these familiar foes.


Rankings at 19th July 2010
1.Australia1225.33
2.India1209.48
3.South Africa1193.34
4.England1125.95
5.Sri Lanka1103.96
6.Pakistan1069.17
7.West Indies919.14
8.New Zealand917.91
9.Bangladesh638.24
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland547.06
12.Scotland477.92
13.Namibia378.09
14.Afghanistan362.06
15.Kenya351.46
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.48
18.Netherlands210.64
19.Nepal196.51
20.U.A.E.182.53
21.Canada177.28
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 20th July, 2010 17:40:46   [#] [0 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CCVIII, July 2010
Russell Degnan

Albert Park. Taken June 2010

Melbourne Town 13th July, 2010 09:44:51   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 10th July 2010
Russell Degnan

Been moving house, so neither time or internet at home for the past couple of weeks, which prevented me from doing the UAE-Bermuda game.

Recently completed matches

3rd TestWest IndiesvSouth Africa
Pre-rating924.181189.55
Form-3.60-0.07
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 83 runs
Actual MarginSouth Africa by 7 wickets
Post-rating919.141193.34

By far the West Indies best opportunity to take something from this series. A pitch tailored to Benn's game allowed them to stay in sight until the second innings. The South African batsmen's willingness to grind out a reasonable total contrasted strongly with the West Indian batsmen's poor shot selection. Chanderpaul aside their batsmen lack the weight of run-making required to beat good sides. For South Africa, seven contributing players was enough to almost completely dominate. The lack of runs from Petersen and lack of wickets from Harris and Tsotsobe will be a concern. Ultimately though, like so many others, this was a short mismatched series of no obvious importance in the absence of a test championship.


I-Shield MatchBermudavU.A.E.
Pre-rating138.61161.47
Form-64.01+10.20
Expected MarginBermuda by 39 runs
Actual MarginU.A.E. by 9 wickets
Post-rating105.40182.53

A minor competition perhaps, but at least a competition. The U.A.E. entered this game needing a win and first innings points to ensure their place in the final. While the ratings indicated Bermuda was the favourite at home, their recent results and shocking form indicate a side that has seriously declined since making the World Cup four years ago. The U.A.E. more or less achieved their aim after a session as Bermuda collapsed for 56. Having then declared 300 in front, they made heavier work of the second innings with Hemp leading the way as usual. Nevertheless, the U.A.E.'s place in the final was confirmed with more than a day to spare. Namibia and Uganda will meet to decide their opponent in an intriguingly poised contest in September.


Forthcoming matches

2 TestsPakistanvAustralia
Pre-rating1073.881220.38
Form-2.46+10.09
Expected MarginAustralia by 73 runs

A series to answer some questions: do neutral series in England have a future (not least the proposed test championship); are Pakistan rejuvenating and able to provide a decent contest in the longer form of the game; and the thought foremost in both the hosts and Pakistan's opponents minds: how will this affect Ashes selection? With only two tests though, failures by the incumbents, particularly those under pressure such as Hussey or North, will raise more questions, not less amongst the selectors. A repeat of Sydney, or last year's Ashes where the entire top-order collapses badly will either induce panic in November's first test lineup or a circling of the wagons, and collective eye-closing to any problem.

For Pakistan, more accustomed to selectorial change and uncertain performance, these two tests provide a chance to get their own back after a difficult tour to Australia in the summer, and for Afridi to prove his worth as captain. Certainly, they have the bowling to hurt Australia, but Umar Akmal aside, their batting is unlikely to score enough runs to win. Results are likely in both tests however, so it ought to be an interesting contest.

Rankings at 10th July 2010
1.Australia1220.38
2.India1209.48
3.South Africa1193.34
4.England1125.95
5.Sri Lanka1103.96
6.Pakistan1073.88
7.West Indies919.14
8.New Zealand917.91
9.Bangladesh638.24
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland547.06
12.Scotland477.92
13.Namibia378.09
14.Afghanistan362.06
15.Kenya351.46
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.48
18.Netherlands210.64
19.Nepal196.51
20.U.A.E.182.53
21.Canada177.28
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 11th July, 2010 02:18:28   [#] [0 comments]