Ratings - 25th August 2010
Russell Degnan

Recently completed matches

3rd TestEnglandvPakistan
Pre-rating1151.721042.10
Form+29.63-39.80
Expected MarginEngland by 105 runs
Actual MarginPakistan by 4 wickets
Post-rating1141.861055.72

It's amazing what taking a few catches can do for a side. Pakistan retain the frailties of a sickly youth, repeatedly letting England crawl back into the game they dominated from the time Wahab Riaz ripped through the English top-order in his first spell in test cricket. Another gritty innings by Prior, and a (somewhat) fortunate hundred by Cook kept England in the game, but they had little support. Yet, in imperfect batting conditions, England's bowlers and Pakistan's weakness with the bat - overly reliant on an extremely rusty Yousuf to keep things steady - combined to give the game a tense finish. An improved performance by England ought to see them to a 3-1 victory, but you can never completely write off Pakistan, not with the bowling line-up they possess (surely the best test cirkcet has to offer right now). Here's hoping too, that at some point in their six test English jaunt Umar Akmal decides to show.

Rankings at 25th August 2010
1.Australia1220.57
2.India1204.58
3.South Africa1193.34
4.England1141.86
5.Sri Lanka1109.33
6.Pakistan1055.72
7.West Indies919.14
8.New Zealand917.91
9.Bangladesh638.24
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland556.64
12.Scotland461.60
13.Afghanistan404.44
14.Namibia378.09
15.Kenya351.46
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.48
18.Nepal196.51
19.Netherlands195.69
20.U.A.E.182.53
21.Canada177.28
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 27th August, 2010 00:39:08   [#] [0 comments] 

Senate Predictions 2010
Russell Degnan

Somewhat belatedly, I thought it would be worth revisiting the Senate prediction method used in 2007. Unfortunately, it wasn't as effective as hoped, as can be seen by the graph below.

While 1996 saw a strong movement away from the sitting government, and towards minor parties, the 2007 election was closer to 1983. Strongly towards Labor directly from the Liberals, rather than the collapse of the government vote.

Thus, while the swings were pretty close (although consistently overshooting), the minor party swing was the reverse of that expected, except in South Australia (where the Xenophon effect had been extensively polled) and Tasmania (which is seeing consistent growth in the Green vote).

This election promises to be more typical, following the patterns set in 1984 and 1998 where first term governments suffered heavy swings without any increase in the opposition's primary senate vote.

Tracing the HoR polls, as before, onto primary vote percentages, and the expected minor swings gives the following predictive graph.

Using Antony Green's senate calculator produces the following in each state:

South Australia
Unusual, in that the lack of a Xenophon votes means the minor parties will probably go backwards, to roughly in line with historic trends. Two seats are up for grabs, leaving the three main parties in a race. The Greens need over 11-12% of the vote which is puts them on the knife-edge, given recent polls. The Liberal easily ride to 5th, but Democrat preferences will go to Labor, so the Greens lot depends on whether their vote has a post-collapse anti-major electoral rebound, but also, by how much the Liberals pass their third quota, as the Greens get almost nothing from anyone until they are out.
Liberals 3, Labor 2(3), Greens 1(0)

Western Australia
A straight-forward count, giving the 6th sport to the Greens easily, the CDP makes a late run as it scoops up votes from all-comers, but the Labor party will tip the Greens over the line, without making a serious challenge for the sixth spot themselves.
Liberals 3, Labor 2, Greens 1

Queensland
A straight forward vote, Liberal pick up an easy 3 from the right wing vote. Given the expected swing, Labor will never challenge for the 6th, put use their preferences to put the Greens over the line against Family First, who should slide into second.
Liberals 3, Labor 2, Greens 1

Victoria
Greens easily take 5th, as they have Democrats preferences if they fail to make quote themselves. Any pro-Gillard swing will put Labor very close to a third quota, but they get almost no preferences above the Liberals, so the Liberals need around a 37% primary vote to crawl over the line. If the Liberal vote goes further south, Steven Fielding will need both around 4% himself and a weaker than expected Green/ALP vote to take advantage of the DLP's pre-ALP ballot position and crawl back into Parliament. Unlikely.
Liberals 2, Labor 3, Greens 1

New South WalesInteresting count. Labor's likely vote collapse means they need both the Green/Democrats vote to stay below a quota and their own vote to stay above 36% to come second above the CDP. If they succeed, right-wing votes will tip them into a third quota, otherwise the Greens will carry Labor preferences home: they need around 11.5% to win, right where they are currently polling.
Liberals 3, Labor 2(3), Greens 1(0)

Tasmania
Who knows what is going on here. Most likely outcome is actually 6 quotas filled and no distribution. But there is an outside chance that both Labor and Liberal will fail to fill their 2nd/3rd quotas, leaving the Greens or Liberals a chance of taking the 6th seat if their vote explodes upwards.
Liberals 2, Labor 3, Greens 1

Australia Capital Territory
The Greens always hope to win this one, but they need a strong Labor vote to keep the Liberals under the quota of 33%. That's unlikely amongst a big NSW anti-Labor swing, and almost impossible with Democrats preferences heading towards the Liberals, though a pro-Labor, anti-Liberal population turnover means it can't be ruled out completely.
Liberals 1, Labor 1, Greens 0


Northern Territory
Forget it.
Liberals 1, Labor 1, Greens 0

By the numbers:
Liberals 18, Labor 16(18), Greens 6(4)

Continuing:
Liberals 16, Labor 16, Greens 3, Xenophon 1

In total:
Liberals 34, Labor 32(34), Greens 9(7), Xenophon 1

Sterner Matters 21st August, 2010 19:30:03   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 18th August 2010
Russell Degnan

Failure of my computer to turn on meant I missed a big week of cricket, so there is much to catch up on.

Recently completed matches

2nd/3rd TestSri LankavIndia
Pre-rating1116.741198.36
Form-0.68-12.09
Expected MarginSri Lanka by 9 runs
Actual MarginMatch Drawn
 India by 5 wickets
Post-rating1109.331204.58

The meaningless familiarity of the contest has obscured what was a genuinely interesting series between two evenly matched sides. The second test pitch was widely panned, but even that game retained some interest until the 4th day; that Raina made a century on debut, whilst coming in four down and 400 runs in arrears seems to have been forgotten entirely. Sri Lanka, for their part, needed to attack earlier and more often, with bat and ball, to force the advantage they'd acquired. Sangakarra's defensive instincts are holding his team back, far more so than his preferred complaint regarding a lack of matches.

The final test was actually a classic, with India demonstrating again, that, under Dhoni, they carry the mentality of a top test side. Ojha and Sehwag provided the impetus, the former sparking a mini-collapse that kept the Sri Lankan score within decent bounds, the latter, first powering India towards a small lead - albeit one they eventually had to grind out via the tail - then picking up key wickets with the ball. Sri Lanka's remarkable collapse on the 4th morning looked like gifting India an easy victory, but Samaraweera - often given short shrift for his 50-plus average - provided a second score of note to set a testing target. Randiv's 5 wickets - an infinitely better game for him than his debut a week earlier - tested the Indian mettle, but he lacked support, particularly from Mendis, Malinga, and his captain.

Like Mark Waugh, Laxman's determination has been overlooked by witnesses to his elegant grace. Elegance is underpinned by time; the ability to score freely in difficult circumstances the same. Laxman might be forever over-shadowed by his contemporaries, but perhaps more than any of them, he can point to innings of substance when it was most required.


1st/2nd TestEnglandvPakistan
Pre-rating1127.081076.83
Form-1.72+7.79
Expected MarginEngland by 75 runs
Actual MarginEngland by 354 runs
 England by 9 wickets
Post-rating1151.721042.10

Two tests marked by mostly woeful performances by Pakistan. Their bowlers, probably comprising the finest attack in test cricket, have stood valiantly between the abyss that turns a crumbling loss into an abject surrender, undone by shoddy fielding (the reverse of which would have made the games significantly closer) and poor batting. Despite his youth, Aamer has shown the batsmen up as well, batting longer than any team-mate in the first two tests, albeit without scoring many runs. England, for their part, are playing only well enough to win easily, when gifted the game. Morgan and Prior's (gifted) centuries in the first test prevented the scorecard looking embarrassing, but Pakistan's abysmal batting made the runs moot anyway. Similarly, Pietersen and the second test, where Butt's surprising decision to bat first meant the game was effectively over by stumps. The bowling is playing well, but with all eyes now training themselves on the first test in Brisbane, it isn't clear whether destroying a pathetic batting line-up in swinging conditions is an irrelevant side-show, or a portent of things to come.


I-Cup MatchIrelandvNetherlands
Pre-rating547.06210.64
Form+4.89-25.19
Expected MarginIreland by 218 runs
Actual MarginIreland by an innings and 84 runs
Post-rating556.64195.69

There is a certain A quality to the game that makes me wonder if it is worth including. Both sides were missing their county players, but the result was probably unaffected, as Ireland's depth and experience shone through. Dockrell will no doubt be the next to cross the Irish Sea, picking up four wickets in the first innings, but barely required in the second. The comprehensive nature of the win means Ireland still have some chance of making the final, but other games have gone against them, and it is likely their inability to close out games earlier in the tournament will prevent them going through.


I-Cup MatchScotlandvAfghanistan
Pre-rating477.92362.06
Form+37.44+64.20
Expected MarginScotland by 108 runs
Actual MarginAfghanistan by 229 runs
Post-rating461.60404.44

An eagerly anticipated clash, with the winner almost certain to make the final, and the loser hard-pressed to keep out the lurking Zimbabwe XI. My suspicion, was that Afghanistan would struggle if the ball swung, being unfamiliar with the conditions, but had the bowling to win if the batting held up. Batting first, Afghanistan put a weakened Scottish side - like the teams above, missing their county players - to the sword, running up 435 before unleashing Hamid Hassan. His five wickets and the disciplined bowling of his team-mates left Scotland in tatters, all out 139. A little surprisingly, they chose not to enforce the follow-on, but they should definitely have scored faster and declared earlier than 546 runs in front. Another five-for for Hassan just prevented Scotland from achieving the draw, but Afghanistan should count themselves fortunate, given their defensiveness. Regardless of their result against Kenya, Afghanistan should move through to the final. Scotland will face Zimbabwe in the final game, needing either an outright or (if they are lucky) a first innings win to progress.

Rankings at 18th August 2010
1.Australia1220.57
2.India1204.58
3.South Africa1193.34
4.England1151.72
5.Sri Lanka1109.33
6.Pakistan1042.10
7.West Indies919.14
8.New Zealand917.91
9.Bangladesh638.24
10.Zimbabwe556.79

11.Ireland556.64
12.Scotland461.60
13.Afghanistan404.44
14.Namibia378.09
15.Kenya351.46
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda280.48
18.Nepal196.51
19.Netherlands195.69
20.U.A.E.182.53
21.Canada177.28
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 19th August, 2010 09:55:10   [#] [1 comment] 

Monday Melbourne: CCX, August 2010
Russell Degnan

Temperance Statue. Taken March 2004

Melbourne Town 16th August, 2010 22:50:28   [#] [0 comments]