Ratings - 18th August 2011
Russell Degnan

Recent Results

3rd TestEnglandvIndia
Pre-rating1280.061164.66
Form+53.25-44.80
Expected MarginEngland by 108 runs
Actual MarginEngland by an innings and 242 runs
Post-rating1310.971133.86

There is a certain amount of irony that the conclusion of this test occured immediately prior to the release of the Argus Review into Australian cricket. The former result was the third comprehensive one in succession for India, and one of the largest victories in cricket history. In ratings terms, the best game by England in the post-war period. The Australian review, highlighting weak techniques and thoughtless, ineffective bowling against England could just as easily apply to India. Which raises the interesting question:

Are India (and Australia) actually playing poorly, or are England making them play poorly, through the sustained excellence of their cricket.

Because England don't look like a great side; their bowling is only a touch over medium-pace, their fielding solid, but not brilliant, their batting boring, if still fast-scoring once the opposition are exhausted. But they give nothing away. In fact, they probably give less away than possibly any team that has ever played the game; and over the course of four innings, that adds up to a lot of runs.

India, suffering still with injuries, and bereft of confidence, played (with one or two exceptions) as if they'd been beaten before the game began. Which in a sense, they had, by their failure to prepare, and by England's meticulous training and near perfect execution. Traditionally, great players who thrive on the back of technical excellence and careful execution are under-valued: Dravid, Barrington, Flower in his playing days, and even McGrath. We may find out soon whether a side of talented but not exceptional individuals can dominate cricket like modern baseliners did tennis: by making very few mistakes.

Rankings at 18th August 2011
1.England1310.97
2.South Africa1180.15
3.India1133.86
4.Australia1125.02
5.Sri Lanka1070.23
6.West Indies922.70
7.New Zealand885.38
8.Bangladesh617.01
9.Zimbabwe552.33

10.Ireland556.46
11.Afghanistan518.44
12.Scotland436.06
13.Namibia400.40
14.Kenya338.92
15.U.S.A.296.99
16.Uganda268.44
17.U.A.E.204.63
18.Netherlands202.55
19.Nepal196.51
20.Canada164.19
21.Hong Kong148.65
22.Cayman Is134.24
23.Malaysia123.90
24.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 21st August, 2011 19:13:27   [#] [2 comments] 

Ratings - 10th August 2011
Russell Degnan

Recent Results

I-Cup MatchCanadavAfghanistan
Pre-rating177.51484.71
Form-23.05+105.85
Expected MarginAfghanistan by 104 runs
Actual MarginAfghanistan by 9 wickets
Post-rating164.19518.44

Canada would have had mixed feelings at the end of Afghanistan's first innings. 293 is no better than par score, but should have been 50 runs fewer. Twelve overs later they would have been decidedly morose, as Hamid Hassan ripped out 4 wickets to have them 21/4. Day 2 was washed out and on return, Hassan bowled another 15 consecutive overs across two sessions, taking the first 7 wickets to fall, before Canada staged a revival of sorts, making 130. Following on, a now injured Hassan bowled half-pace but still took the first three wickets to finish with 10/85 off 27 overs. Canada worked hard to avoid the innings defeat, but they would be no recovery from that position and Afghanistan eased to a 9 wicket victory on the fourth day.


1st TestZimbabwevBangladesh
Pre-rating546.63618.26
Form-36.93+18.12
Expected MarginBangladesh by 14 runs
Actual MarginZimbabwe by 130 runs
Post-rating552.33617.01

The universal consensus on this match was that Zimbabwe were much better than expected. How good that actually correlates to is hard to determine. The tour from Pakistan won't necessarily tell us much, because noone is sure how good Pakistan is - though they ought to win easily. The tour from New Zealand will make things clearer. What was certain is that they were too good for Bangladesh. What is also certain is that they played with a verve missing from better test sides, batting sensibly and long (223 overs); attacking the Bangladeshi bowling to set up a generous and attacking declaration; and bowling with purpose, if a little impatience.

Their batting remains a weakness, as their sudden first innings collapse demonstrated, although both Taylor and Masakadza made tons, and Sibanda was worthy of one. Their bowling, however, has a lot of potential, particularly Vitori, a front-on left-armer who consistently swung the ball, and Jarvis, with a McGrath like action, sans his height, athleticism and relentless accuracy. The supporting bowlers, particularly Price are steady and controlling, letting Bangladesh gift their wickets, which they happily did.

Bangladesh need to sit down and assess this performance, as their batting is good enough to make big scores, with a litle patience. Their bowling, particular their seamers were close to useless, and while Shakib is steady and capable, Taylor and Taibu demonstrated that a steady head on a good pitch is more than enough to counter an attack that looked bereft of ideas. They will probably win the ODIs with their greater attacking strength, but if they want to be taken seriously as a cricketing nation, they need to win games like this.

Rankings at 10th August 2011
1.England1280.06
2.South Africa1180.15
3.India1164.66
4.Australia1125.02
5.Sri Lanka1070.23
6.West Indies922.70
7.New Zealand885.38
8.Bangladesh617.01
9.Zimbabwe552.33

10.Ireland556.46
11.Afghanistan518.44
12.Scotland436.06
13.Namibia400.40
14.Kenya338.92
15.U.S.A.296.99
16.Uganda268.44
17.U.A.E.204.63
18.Netherlands202.55
19.Nepal196.51
20.Canada164.19
21.Hong Kong148.65
22.Cayman Is134.24
23.Malaysia123.90
24.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 10th August, 2011 01:25:53   [#] [2 comments] 

Monday Melbourne: CCXXXVII, August 2011
Russell Degnan

Old Southern. Taken August 2011

Melbourne Town 10th August, 2011 00:50:58   [#] [0 comments] 

In which Burgher Russ refuses to ponder pulp polling
Russell Degnan

Leaves and branches pressed against Burgher Russ's face as he eased his way forward past years of growth. Beneath his feet were the moulding remnants of torn-out self-help quizzes and posters from years before. There were a lot of them, now rotting, and left for snails to eat, digest and leave to crumble, feeding the shrubs and small trees that blocked his path.

The house itself was solidly but hastily constructed, but long disused. Like a student rental, left to rot after its tenants left.

Ther was nothing for the Burgher here. But he knew that, from the time he'd gathered his remaining possessions. What had attracted him was the faint sound of music from a nearby dwelling. Not for the music, though he yearned company, and was vaguely intrigued by the idea of Japanese schoolgirls playing hard rock, he could sense that direction offered no way home. To get home, he needed something else: a junction...

A Burgher in Absentia 10th August, 2011 00:49:42   [#] [0 comments] 

Ratings - 4th August 2011
Russell Degnan

Recent Results

2nd TestEnglandvIndia
Pre-rating1257.931184.51
Form+35.97-20.44
Expected MarginEngland by 87 runs
Actual MarginEngland by 319 runs
Post-rating1280.061164.66

Hard to believe from the final result that half-way through day 2 India were four down and in front of England. That they collapse so spectacularly with bat and ball is a sign of both English resilience and India's lack of depth. Injuries are largely at fault for the latter, and this would be a different series with a fit opening pair, and more especially, a fit opening bowler.

Injuries are also a fact of life in modern cricket, and the performances by India's second string batting lineup bordered on embarassing. How Raina (in particular), Mukund and Yuvraj have survived as long as they have with their short-ball techniques is a mystery. The English bowlers deserve credit for the pace and accuracy of their short bowling, but there is a difference between uncomfortable batting on a difficult pitch and looking incompetent, and Raina, in particular, fit the latter description

Dhoni too seemed to lose it part way through the test. His batting was distracted, his keeping increasingly sloppy, and his captaincy largely passive as one by one his bowlers failed him. For a time Kumar and Sreesanth held things together, but once they tired England's lower order took the attack to pieces.

It is worth keeping those factors in mind, as the series takes a short break before moving to Edgbaston. At least some of India's experienced players will return, though by all accounts they've now lost Harbajan (or at least his presence) and Yuvraj. England should either feel confident that they dominated without any output from their top three, or be wary that on another day they might (and in fact ought to) have been defending less than 300 in the last innings.

For now though, their performances are reflecting something the ratings suggested six months ago. They are a very fine side, well organised, resilient, and capable of smashing teams off their game. They are not dominant - it takes 4-8 years for a side to become dominant after broaching number one spot - but they have the players and attitude to become so. India, by contrast, increasingly look like a transition champion.


I-Cup MatchKenyavUAE
Pre-rating338.92176.09
Form-22.43+20.63
Expected MarginKenya by 131 runs
Actual MarginUAE by 266 runs
Post-rating310.37204.63

An evenly contested match until the U.A.E. reached 3/31 late on day 2, after which their experienced middle order took over and completely batted Kenya out of the match. Like India, Kenya took the abomination that is first innings points and yet somehow lost by 266 runs. That battle was impressive in itself, as they needed 45 runs at the fall of the eighth wicket, but that success merely glossed over the failure of their top order, and in a big fourth innings chase, they were never in it. For U.A.E. Khurram Khan followed 85 in the first innings with 113 in the second, the latter on the back of Saqib Ali's 153 and Ahmed Javed's even 100. Varaiya and the young Oluoch took wickets for Kenya, but they'll need better support if they are to win games in this competition.


Forthcoming Series

I-Cup MatchCanadavAfghanistan
Pre-rating177.51484.71
Form-23.05+105.85
Expected MarginAfghanistan by 104 runs

Canada face a stiff test in the opening match of their I-Cup campaign. Partly because well before a poor world cup they began a renewal process that has seen some youthful faces getting their chance in the side, but meant they have stuggled, particularly in the top-order. But mostly because their opponents, reigning champions Afghanistan, seem to improve with every game. Home advantage and a short preparation by the tourists may make a difference, but the ratings - lacking in hard data as they are - indicate an easy victory for the Afghan side.

Canada's cause has been further hurt by the absence of world cup captain, best batsman and keeper Bagai and much depends on whether Jimmy Hansra can jold things together or inspire his kids to perform. The Canadian bowling is solid, but Afghanistan chased a near first-class record against Canada in their last fixture, so expect them to score enough runs to let Hamid Hassan and company do their job.

1 TestZimbabwevBangladesh
Pre-rating546.63618.26
Form-36.93+18.12
Expected MarginBangladesh by 14 runs

This may be the first series that Bangladesh has actually gone in as favourite for, and it is a good one, because the game weights mean, regardless of result, their ranking wil not change too much. Zimbabwe, back for their first test in several years could be anywhere from shocking to not bad. Their performance in the world cup and the lead up game would indicate that this should be a close contest, with the hosts perhaps slightly favoured. I hope, for both their sakes, but also expect, because both have much to prove, that it is an excellent match, though it won't be telecast anywhere, as far as I can tell. A sign, if anything, that the gap between the I-Cup and the bottom of the test ladder is much smaller than the gap to the financial epicentre. If nothing else, it is a rarity amongst lower-ranked clashes: one where both teams have something to prove.

Update: myp2p comes through with coverage.

Rankings at 4th August 2011
1.England1280.06
2.South Africa1180.15
3.India1164.66
4.Australia1125.02
5.Sri Lanka1070.23
6.West Indies922.70
7.New Zealand885.38
8.Bangladesh618.26
9.Zimbabwe546.63

10.Ireland556.46
11.Afghanistan484.71
12.Scotland436.06
13.Namibia400.40
14.Kenya338.92
15.U.S.A.296.99
16.Uganda268.44
17.U.A.E.204.63
18.Netherlands202.55
19.Nepal196.51
20.Canada177.51
21.Hong Kong148.65
22.Cayman Is134.24
23.Malaysia123.90
24.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 4th August, 2011 01:48:59   [#] [2 comments] 

Associate Cricket: European/Americas Div1 Review
Russell Degnan

Americas T20 Division 1 was a sadly predictable tournament with only a couple of games being closely fought and both Bermuda and the USA moving forward behind winners Canada. The US will be the most disappointed having failed to defeat a below-strength Canadian side. On this effort they'll be highly unlikely to challenge for the WT20 places next year.


By contrast, the European T20 Division 1 was as close as Americas was predictable. In the end, the four sides expected to progress to the semi-finals did so, with Denmark and Italy prevailing over the home sides. But the group games were close throughout, every side lost at least 1 game, and the only team who went home winless - Croatia - came within a single wicket of defeating the eventual runners-up.

Class and experience counted for a lot in the final analysis, but on this evidence European cricket is going from strength to strength. In particular, as some of the more populous nations like France and Germany increase their junior player bases this tournament wil become even more competitive, and of a higher standard.

Next step on the qualification path are the Asian T20 Championships in December. A tournament that promises much in front of passionate Nepalese crowds. Followed by the world qualifier in the new year in the UAE.

Idle Summers 3rd August, 2011 23:34:21   [#] [0 comments]