Senate Predictions: ACT
Russell Degnan

Just as Western Australia is the most rightward leaning of States, the ACt is the most westward leaning, combining a strong ALP vote (normally 50-60%) with a tendency to vote for the third party (~16%) - previously the Democrats, but now the Greens. And yet,m because the territories only have two senators a piece, the seats have always been split between the two parties. This may no longer be true next week.

The graph of ACT results has generally followed a similar shape to NSW (you'll have to take my word for it), albeit several points across to the left, and with far less diversity on their minor parties. For this reason, the best estimate of the swing is likely to be the same as in NSW. Taking the past three Newspolls as a guide, the swing in ALP major party proportion in NSW is 6.5%. Minor party representation is already high, but has been higher and there are more parties on the ballot than in 2004. A minor party swing of 4.8% again seems reasonable, leavign the graph looking like this:

Two things are worth noting here. The first is that the Liberals are obviously short of a full quota. With only the LDP for preferencing support, the Greens are clear front-runners to win the second seat. The second, is that the ACT has very strong below the line preferencing, so the Liberals may benefit from Labor and Democrats leakage,

The magnitude of the Greens vote makes any other possibility extremely unlikely - though it is possible for Labor win both seats, given an outrageously large swing. This is therefore a straight shootout between the Liberals and the Greens supported by everyone else. The Greens would appear to be favourites, though the graph probably overstates their advantage, given the BTL voting in operation.


Prediction

58.5% ALP Proportion of Major Party Vote
74.25% Major Party Primary Vote
1 ALP, 1 Green

Sterner Matters 22nd November, 2007 23:36:11   [#] 

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