Senate Predictions: NT
Russell Degnan

The Northern Territory is at once both the least interesting Senate race, and the most intriguing trend. It is the least interesting because both parties are safely ensconsed over the 33% make needed to make quota. Their NT Senate seat will be the least of their problems if the coalition suffered the type of swing that made it vulnerable.

But it is still interesting, because in defiance of all other states, the Northern Territory slowly shifted towards Labor during the 1980s, and has held that position despite a growing minor party (Greens and Democrats). The latter trend has drawn them close to the national average for the minor party vote. However, the limited number of candidates means that it will be unlikely to go much lower. The graph of past trends is as follows:

Trying to predict the swing up north is practically impossible. Polling is almost non-existent or never reported because the sample is too small, and mostly focused on the marginal seat of Solomon (which isn't showing a strong trend). I'm therefore predicting an 8% broadly in line with polling in South Australia and Queensland. The CLP can rest easy though. Even with the most outrageous swing will the CLP will sneak home on Democrats preferences.


Prediction

56% ALP Proportion of Major Party Vote
83% Major Party Primary Vote
1 ALP, 1 CLP

Sterner Matters 23rd November, 2007 08:26:40   [#] 

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