Senate Predictions: NSW
Russell Degnan

New South Wales is the most stable of all the states, strangely resistant to big swings (1996 excepted) staying within the 45-55% range on primary votes and 15-25% for minor parties. Recent elections have (not surprisingly) been to the rightward end of that spectrum, but only twice has it failed to return a minor party candidate, at the expense of the weaker of the two major parties.

The ALP HoR proportion has traditionally been very similar to the Senate, being within a percent either way. We can therefore get a pretty good idea from recent polling where the likely vote will fall. Or we could, if it weren't so volatile. Digging into the Newspoll makes things a little clearer, which have sat at around 46-41 on ALP primary, much of the extra volatility being the Greens vote. This translates to a 53% ALP proportion, modified 0.5% for HoR difference, a swing of 7%. Adding a swing of 4.5% to the minor parties and we get the following:

Much depends on the right-wing minor party vote in this race. Labor is guaranteed to come in the last 2 or 3, the Greens in the last 3 o4 4, and the Liberals in the last 4 or 5, but that leaves two spots open at the business end.

A number of crucial points late in the count will decide which of three candidates will get up for the fifth seat. The LDP is the main threat, beneficiaries of some ridiculous preference flows and capable of winning with as little as 1/6 percent of the vote, they need to sneak past a series of hurdles to make it. Firstly, the Fishing Party, then Family First. Losses to them can potentially propel the Climate Change Coalition above the Greens and into the fifth seat.

Otherwise, the LDP will suck up CCC votes, putting them up against the CDP, who pick up One Nation, DLP (left of the ALP on the ballot, and therefore potentially upwards of 2%). If the LDP is lower than the CDP, their votes are redistributed (mostly to the Greens), and the higher of the CDP and Liberals will take the fifth seat. A slightly more likely scenario sees the CDP redistribute through the LDP, pushing them in front of the Greens and gifting the final seat to themselves and Labor.

Even that isn't certain however. If the Liberals are excluded before the Greens, their vote will elect both the LDP (or the CDP) and the Greens. A complex count then, probably not decided until a few weeks after the election, not least because BTL votes will matter at several crucial points. Minor parties in the Senate make things interesting though, so I hope for an upset.

Prediction

52.5% ALP Proportion of Major Party Vote
76% Major Party Primary Vote
2 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat, 1 LDP, 1 Grn

Sterner Matters 24th November, 2007 11:13:29   [#] 

Comments

Senate Predictions: NSW
Presumably when you say "Lib" you mean "Lib/Nat". John Williams from the Nationals is second on the combined Lib/Nat ticket this time around.
Aaron  24th November, 2007 12:26:13  

Senate Predictions: NSW
Yes, in fact I mean Lib/Nat in all these races. I'll go through and correct them.
Russ  24th November, 2007 14:24:45