Senate Predictions: Victoria
Russell Degnan

Also relatively stable (with the exception of 1993 when the minor party vote plummeted, Victoria also has a history of resisting big swings, although the polls tend towards something like that today.

Uncertainty around the Greens vote is the major problem making a prediction. Their relative strength is what throws the major party vote around, and a suge to them could dampen the ALP vote. Estimates of the proportion and swing put it somewhere in the range of NSW, though that Green vote means the Senate proportion needs to be shifted towards the Liberal party from the HoR proportion. The predicted ALP proportion here is 53%, and a major party vote of 75%.

As in NSW, this leaves two seats up for grabs, but unlike there, no minor parties seem capable of collecting the necessary preferences. If the Liberals poll very badly, there is a chance for Family First to push for the final seat, but, at the same time, if the Liberals vote falls too far, Family First will still fall short of a full quota. There is an outside chance that the Climate Change Coalition can use first place on the ballot, and then Democrats and Family First preferences to sneak in front of the Greens and then to victory. Sadly too, the Democrats will need a miracle in the form of a 6% vote to overhaul the Greens and use their preferences.

The final two seats, therefore, are a very, very close battle between the Greens (Democrats and other preferences), the ALP, and the Liberals (Family First, DLP, CDP). Most reasonable estimates have one side or the other winning by between a few hundred and a few thousand votes. Predicting this race is practically impossible, however, late movement to the Liberals and/or further dampening of the ALP vote from an increase in the Greens makes me suspect the ALP will just miss out.


53% ALP Proportion of Major Party Vote
75% Major Party Primary Vote
2 ALP, 3 Lib, 1 Grn

Sterner Matters 24th November, 2007 14:23:42   [#]