Senate Predictions: Queensland
Russell Degnan

While not as bad as New South Wales, Queensland's high minor party vote, and unusual combination of pariah parties with big votes puts those last two spots up in the air. in the past the coalition has been guaranteed three seats in all but 1998 when One Nation and the Democrats shared them. It is likely the ALP will still struggle to capture enough of the vote to compete for a third seat, leaving a really large gap in the middle for other parties to support.

The sheer size of the predicted swing makes accuracy in either that or the minor party vote difficult. Newspoll seems to undercook the Greens vote but have the proportion at 53.8%. Morgan, who normally seem to be overstating the ALP Senate vote, have it at 55.1%. And GetUp, who are seem to overstate the Greens vote, put the ALP proportion at 48.7%. Taking the middle ground, I estimate the proportion at 51.5%, with a relatively modest minor party swing (taking into account the slow decline in the One Nation/Hanson vote) of 4% making it (a still high) 27% overall.

The most significant aspect of the vote being in this region is that neither the coalition nor Labor have strong votes, and are therefore vulnerable to coming third or fourth at the expense of minor parties.

For the coalition (actually, the Nationals), much rests on the size of the Family First and Pauline Hanson vote. If FF can stay in front of Pauline Hanson then they capture her preferences to propel themselves in front of the Liberals for the final seat, locking out Labor whose preferences then elect the Greens candidate. If not, the coalition takes the fifth seat, while Pauline Hanson preferences will either elect the Democrats (with Greens help), or Labor.

An exceptionally large Pauline Hanson vote can also elect Labor and the Greens, or even both the Democrats and the Greens, though in neither scenario are the Nationals more than a few thousand votes from taking the final seat. Liek Victoria and NSW this one is too close to call, but my feeling is that the Nationals and Greens will sneak through.

Prediction

51.5% ALP Proportion of Major Party Vote
73% Major Party Primary Vote
2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Nat, 1 Grn

Sterner Matters 24th November, 2007 15:39:25   [#] 

Comments