Ratings Update - December 2008
Russell Degnan

The rating system has had another tweak. There has always been the need for a balance between sensitivity to particular tests, and the need to shift the rating quickly when circumstances change. To bypass this problem, I have implemented protection to the rating.

Essentially, any single game change to the rating is divided in half. One half changing the rating, the other added to the long term trend, which is then added (again, by halves) if the trend matches games that follow. As usual, blogging about history can wait, but it has made a fascinating change to the current ratings:

Australia 1266.48 (1st)
South Africa 1188.62 (2nd)
India 1160.06 (3rd)
Sri Lanka 1107.36 (4th)
England 1100.18 (5th)
Pakistan 1064.46 (6th)
New Zealand 981.8 (7th)
West Indies 917.89 (8th)
Bangladesh 595.29 (9th)
Zimbabwe 542.57 (10th)

There is, however, little change to the expected margins in the tests to come:
Australia (over South Africa) by 89 runs
New Zealand (over West India) by 82 runs
India (over England) by 87 runs

Forthcoming Series

Bangladesh (542.57) v Sri Lanka (1107.36) - 2 Tests

Expected Margin: Sri Lanka by 232 runs

As usual, I missed a whirlwind stop of Bangladesh. Sri Lanka have made a habit of thrashing the struggling minnows, and this could hardly be expected to change. Both sides are on an upward trajectory ratings wise, so the margin may matter, even if the result is a foregone conclusion.

Idle Summers 17th December, 2008 12:45:07   [#] 

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