T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 4)
Russell Degnan

The other post was getting messy. One post per round of matches until the final.

Rankings at 9th June 2009form
3.Sri Lanka1259.87+14.02
5.South Africa1237.09+70.62
7.New Zealand1201.58-16.44
8.West Indies1194.00+24.30

Predictions for match day 4
Ireland v New Zealand 43 runs
England v South Africa 7 runs
Pakistan v Sri Lanka 1 run
India v West Indies 13 runs

Idle Summers 11th June, 2009 11:56:46   [#] 


T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 4)
Russ, how are you doing the predictions? England were below South Africa in both rating and form, but you predicted them to beat South Africa.

Unless you've already updated the table following the SA win....
David Barry  12th June, 2009 16:16:59  

T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 4)
David, there is a 100 point home team bonus. I investigated that with regard to the test ratings once and it seemed to work out about right. Whether it still applies to T20 I don't know. When every side is predicted to win by less than a dozen runs, the predictions maybe aren't better than a coin toss.

Will update this round shortly.
Russ  13th June, 2009 18:19:27  

T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 4)
Coin tosses sounds about right! The final IPL points table this year was basically the result of coin-flips (a guy in England ran simulations based on random results, and the variance in the real points tally for each team was exceeded in 44% of the simulations). Of course national teams should have a greater spread of ability than IPL teams, but I don't think it's huge. I would say the #1 team would beat the #8 team 7-3 in a ten-game series.

But it's hard to say with so few matches.

Kartikeya Date has been regularly making a note of the home-field advantage in T20I's. They're running at about 67% for the home side so far. I doubt that the difference between that and for ODI's (which I think is around 60%) statistically significant yet, but it is something to keep in mind.
David Barry  13th June, 2009 23:57:42  

T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 4)
thanks David. From experience, the ratings move in response to one team being better, but although there are clear tiers between the associates and test sides, the top 8 really do seem to be very even. Having said that, South Africa are ominously strong, ratings and form-wise. As, to a lesser extent, are Sri Lanka.

One problem with T20 is that it is hard to press any advantage a great player gives you. In test cricket, a batsman who is 50% better than average (averaging 54 instead of 36) gets you 36 extra runs. A bowler (averaging 20 instead of 30) might get you 100 runs. In T20, 50% might be 12 runs (37 over 25) with the bat and 10 with the ball (20 instead of 30 over 4 overs). And that implies there are players with a 50% better than average strike-rate over a career, which I am not sure there are (maybe 25-30%).

Not that I have a problem with close games mind.
Russ  14th June, 2009 01:37:15