T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 5)
Russell Degnan

Rankings at 12th June 2009form
2.India1285.06-79.40
3.Sri Lanka1280.52+44.81
4.South Africa1272.00+87.48
5.Pakistan1235.43-36.99
6.New Zealand1225.92+36.36
7.West Indies1220.96+59.99
8.England1187.98-36.73
12.Ireland739.69-6.58

Predictions for match day 5
South Africa v West Indies 5 runs
New Zealand v Pakistan 1 run
Ireland v Sri Lanka 54 runs
England v India Tied

Appendum - Predictions plus

David Barry asked below about how the predictions are done. The answer is badly, given the limited data set I have. As noted earlier, by the next world cup I will be able to give more precise numbers for the difference a rating makes (with a standard deviation as well). But for now, the prediction is calculated by the (disturbingly) simple: ratings difference divide 10 (the linear regression says 0.078 +/- 20). With a 100 point bonus for being at home.

As an aside, it had already occurred to me that a published prediction should account for form (future ratings change, results depending). Doing that gives the following:

South Africa v West Indies 8 runs
New Zealand v Pakistan 6 runs
Ireland v Sri Lanka 59 runs
England v India by 5 runs

Tomorrow I will try and calculate, based on past results, what gives a more accurate rating, and use that.

Idle Summers 13th June, 2009 18:28:22   [#] 

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