Predictions for match day 5
Appendum - Predictions plus
David Barry asked below about how the predictions are done. The answer is badly, given the limited data set I have. As noted earlier, by the next world cup I will be able to give more precise numbers for the difference a rating makes (with a standard deviation as well). But for now, the prediction is calculated by the (disturbingly) simple: ratings difference divide 10 (the linear regression says 0.078 +/- 20). With a 100 point bonus for being at home.
As an aside, it had already occurred to me that a published prediction should account for form (future ratings change, results depending). Doing that gives the following:
South Africa v West Indies 8 runs
Tomorrow I will try and calculate, based on past results, what gives a more accurate rating, and use that.
Idle Summers 13th June, 2009 18:28:22 [#]