T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 6)
Russell Degnan

Rankings at 14th June 2009form
1.South Africa1306.64+91.15
3.Pakistan1271.67+44.75
4.India1262.85-64.27
5.Sri Lanka1254.14-19.15
6.West Indies1206.92+16.91
7.New Zealand1198.87+26.82
8.England1190.50-22.51
11.Ireland763.67+43.03

Predictions for match day 6
Ireland v Pakistan 51 runs
England v West Indies 8 runs
New Zealand v Sri Lanka 6 runs
India v South Africa 4 runs


As noted the day before yesterday, I took a moment to compare predictions, based on both the current rating, and current rating with form. The short answer: neither are much help. The average error in both was almost exactly 28 runs; by comparison, the average error if a tie had been predicted for every match: 24.6 runs. Looking at the scatter-plot of results, it is possible that it will converge on a predicted margin half what it currently is, with a standard deviation of 20 runs. In other words, a massive 400 point difference in rating points is needed before the win percentage approaches 65%.

On a different note, Sri Lanka's travails against Ireland has meant their game against New Zealand is now a must-win to go through, whereas the South Africa v India game is marked as "dead", in case India annihilates South Africa and still receives little gain in the ratings.

Idle Summers 15th June, 2009 12:02:33   [#] 

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