T20 Ratings - April 2010 - Round one edition
Russell Degnan

The warm-up games have caused some minor changes in the values, but not the rankings as the World Cup gets underway tonight. This edition, like the last, has a vastly superior format to the interminable ODI World Cup of 2007. The entire tournament is completed in just 17 days, with each of the first two rounds taking just 6 days, yet in neither round are all teams not given reasonable opportunity to qualify.

What hasn't changed though, is the farcical seeding process. The ICC forced their own hand by seeding according to the previous tournament, rather than a weighted average of previous tournaments and other results. Faced with another (almost inevitable) "group of death" because of an upset they turned it into a joke by: relegating Ireland to unseeded on the basis that they weren't a test nation; removing Zimbabwe's seeding because they missed the previous tournament; and finally, rigging the draw to include Australia (10) with Bangladesh (9) to try and ensure the Big-8 qualify.

Or so they hope, I, like most cricket fans I suspect, will be hoping one of the smaller nations follows in the path of Zimbabwe (1999 and 2003), Kenya (2003), Bangladesh (2007 x 2) and Ireland (2007 and 2009) by qualifying for the latter rounds. Nine seeds is overkill in a 12 team tournament. Four is a better number, reflecting half the number of teams in the second round, and by corollary, the number of teams who deserve an easier passage/ shouldn't be meeting each other in the first round.

Similarly, pre-seeding the second round serves no purpose, except to make it more predictable, and therefore less interesting. A team (and its supporters) are entitled to a little luck, and seeding most teams and both rounds removes that element for no great benefit. As can be seen from the list above, every world cup has had upsets, so seeding is unable to ensure the most telegenic/competitive team make the later rounds in any case. Better to seed just four teams, and increase the probability of interesting games early on through groups of death.

In any case, onto the cup...


Group AFormGamesQual. Prob.
1.Australia2053.84.814.089.8%
3.Pakistan2037.9-1.514.488.3%
10.Bangladesh1727.6-29.18.021.9%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
 BangladeshvsPakistan-39 runs16.6%
 AustraliavsPakistan2 runs52.0%
 AustraliavsBangladesh41 runs84.6%

Bangladesh

The second least predictable group. Despite the touting of Bangladesh's T20 credentials by many - mostly on the basis that they are talented sloggers - their T20 record is poor, and is reflected in their rating.

Semi-finalist: 3.1% Finalist: 0.6% Winner 0.2%

Australia

Lucky not to be in a group of death for the second consecutive tournament, and either still struggling to come to terms with the format, or merely unable to overcome the high levels of luck involved. Slow, spinning wickets won't suit their bowling attack, which means, despite leading the ratings, they shouldn't necessarily be favourites.

Semi-finalist: 60.8% Finalist: 34.9% Winner 19.6%

Pakistan

Could repeat 2007 in being the first team dismissed from the tournament on Sunday, but will be hoping to repeat the heroics of 2009. Are not as good as that side, missing Umar Gul and Younis Khan, as well as Mohammed Yousuf. Might fire if Afridi does well, but will probably struggle to score big runs.

Semi-finalist: 53.8% Finalist: 30.5% Winner 16.9%


Group BFormGamesQual. Prob.
4.Sri Lanka2002.8-3.112.282.3%
7.New Zealand1955.11.517.174.7%
9.Zimbabwe1821.656.45.043.0%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
 New ZealandvsSri Lanka-6 runs44.1%
 Sri LankavsZimbabwe23 runs71.4%
 New ZealandvsZimbabwe17 runs66.2%

New Zealand

Will be hoping for more than their normal semi-final berth, and may be capable, with their usual mix of medium pace bowlers, Bond and Vettori suited to slow wickets, and some capable hitters. Hard to see them maintaining enough consistency with the bat to win, but a better bet than their rating suggests.

Semi-finalist: 30.8% Finalist: 14.2% Winner 6.4%

Sri Lanka

Have form in the Caribbean, and this competition. Are probably due for disappointment, and much, as always, depends on Muralitharan. Well captained but will have to get out of a very difficult group in the second round.

Semi-finalist: 46.1% Finalist: 23.4% Winner 11.7%

Zimbabwe

Under-rated, not least because noone has seen them in years. Will depend a lot on Utseya and Price to keep the opposition total manageable for their flaky batting line-up, but do have players capable of slogging. Have claimed some decent scalps recently, which will raise their confidence.

Semi-finalist: 9.1% Finalist: 2.6% Winner 0.7%


Group CFormGamesQual. Prob.
2.South Africa2043.010.413.397.0%
5.India1977.8-16.69.394.4%
12.Afghanistan1516.315.318.58.5%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
 AfghanistanvsIndia-58 runs7.5%
 IndiavsSouth Africa-8 runs41.9%
 AfghanistanvsSouth Africa-66 runs5.0%

Afghanistan

Hard to say how good this side is. Have an excellent recent record against the non-test teams, but have never been up against the test side to compare. Have the advantage over all teams with the most recent internationals, which should hold them in good stead if things get tight. Depend a lot on Hamid Hassan, Noor Ali, Mohammad Nabi and Mohammad Shazhad, and will struggle if they are injured or out of form.

Semi-finalist: 0.2% Finalist: 0.0% Winner 0.0%

India

While India always has to handle the expectations of their irrational public, they are probably tripled this time, given the size (but not necessarily the quality) of the IPL, and the memory of their victory in 2007. Have the batting to win, but not the bowling to win, but could surprise.

Semi-finalist: 47.2% Finalist: 22.5% Winner 10.5%

South Africa

As usual, rated highly, and hopeful at the outset of the tournament. Have the best batting lineup of any side, but may struggle if the pitches are as slow as expected. Like Australia, their chances are probably over-rated.

Semi-finalist: 60.2% Finalist: 34.6% Winner 19.4%


Group DFormGamesQual. Prob.
6.England1973.8-0.812.293.1%
8.West Indies1897.0-31.512.688.6%
11.Ireland1587.8-1.217.518.3%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
 West IndiesvsIreland41 runs84.8%
 West IndiesvsEngland-7 runs43.0%
 EnglandvsIreland48 runs88.6%

West Indies

Home side, and primed for either a brilliant tournament, or a dismal failure. The opening game may give a guide to how committed they are, but they definitely have the players to win, and plenty of experience in the format at a domestic level. Massively under-rated.

Semi-finalist: 31.9% Finalist: 12.8% Winner 5.0%

Ireland

Will face their own best player in an English side for the second time in a World Cup. It will hurt doubly if Morgan continues to win games with composed aggressive innings. Still have players capable of doing damage to superior sides, and will fancy themselves in what is rated a weak group.

Semi-finalist: 0.9% Finalist: 0.1% Winner 0.0%

England

Start after some teams might have finished, and will have to play 5 games in 8 days before the semi-finals. Nevertheless, if their opening partnership can fire, they are a capable and under-rated side who should make the semi-finals.

Semi-finalist: 42.4% Finalist: 20.6% Winner 9.7%

Idle Summers 1st May, 2010 06:44:20   [#] 

Comments

saha
INDIA SHOLD BE WIN T20 WARLD CUP 2010
sujit  5th May, 2010 23:52:09