T20 Ratings - May 2010 - Round two edition
Russell Degnan

Somewhat surprisingly, there were no upsets in the first round, but no team completely disgraced themselves. The associate teams still feel they are being denied enough cricket to compete at this level, and they have a point. However, I don't believe integration into the FTP is a viable option when so many test sides have the same problem getting enough cricket. The best way, by far, for associate cricketers to get exposure to top cricket is to turn pro and play first class cricket in full member countries. A path being taken by more and more European players which is starting to bear fruit (for both the associates and England).

The decision to schedule two games per day at the same stadium came back to haunt the organisers (as indeed it did last year). Provision needs to be made for both longer windows of play to allow games to be completed over the full 20 overs, and for the second game to be reduced to 15 overs per side, to allow an earlier game to conclude. As discussed previously, Duckworth-Lewis is not flawless, though in this year's England vs West Indies debacle, the problem is both well known and ignored. Basically, D/L believe it is unfair for a target to be higher if a side has scored more runs (than the par score) prior to a break in play. I am not sure I agree. The impact of early wickets or runs is magnified by application of the D/L method, and there is a substantial difference between a side being 11 runs in front with 17.4 overs to play (11.7% of the game played), and 11 runs in front with 3.4 overs to play (38.9% of the game played).


Group EFormGamesQual. Prob.
2.South Africa2035.0-5.615.358.7%
3.Pakistan2023.9-22.916.456.3%
6.England1971.1-4.214.244.2%
7.New Zealand1956.11.319.140.8%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
EnglandvsPakistan-7 runs43.4%
South AfricavsNew Zealand10 runs59.7%
New ZealandvsPakistan-2 runs41.6%
EnglandvsSouth Africa-8 runs42.1%
PakistanvsSouth Africa-1 runs48.6%
EnglandvsNew Zealand2 runs51.9%

South Africa

Eased into the tournament, but struggling a little with the bat. Were seemingly not paying attention to the required run-rate against India, and got completely bogged down by Afghanistan after a flying start. On fast pitches their bowling is impressive, but may come unstuck on slower pitches.

Finalist: 31.8% Winner 17.0%

Pakistan

Over-rated. Their form is ordinary, their batting flaky and their fielding shoddy. Being Pakistan there is always the sense that they could win four on the trot to take out the title again, but it seems unlikely with this side.

Finalist: 29.7% Winner 15.5%

England

Under-rated, but possibly lucky to be here. Morgan aside, the batting was horrid against a limited Irish attack, but pummeled the marginally stronger West Indians around the park. Will be greatly concerned about the lack of match play for their bowlers, but happy that their tight schedule is a little more relaxed. Need to beat New Zealand.

Finalist: 20.4% Winner 9.3%

New Zealand

Won a thriller over Sri Lanka and an odd one against the unlucky Zimbabweans. Are dangerous on slow pitches, but look like their batting is too fragile to go further than the semis.

Finalist: 18.1% Winner 8.0%


Group FFormGamesQual. Prob.
1.Australia2061.511.216.065.6%
4.Sri Lanka1997.1-7.314.251.4%
5.India1977.1-0.610.346.8%
8.West Indies1908.91.514.636.2%
GamesExp. MarginWin Prob.
AustraliavsIndia11 runs60.4%
West IndiesvsSri Lanka-9 runs41.6%
West IndiesvsIndia-6 runs44.0%
AustraliavsSri Lanka8 runs58.60%
West IndiesvsAustralia-17 runs33.9%
IndiavsSri Lanka-2 runs47.5%

Australia

Have somehow firmed as favourites without doing much. Defeated a lacklustre Pakistan easily but looked poor against Bangladesh. Bat deep but like South Africa, reliant on a pace attack that might struggle on slow pitches.

Finalist: 37.6% Winner 21.3%

Sri Lanka

Jayawardene aside, the batting looks awful, but still managed to take New Zealand to the wire. Will miss Murali, but still an outside chance. Must beat the loser of India v Australia to progress.

Finalist: 25.4% Winner 12.4%

India

Under-rated (though not by their fans). Are in a tough group, but are almost certainties to go through if they can beat Australia. That match, more than any other, will give a sense of how far India will go.

Finalist: 22.0% Winner 10.2%

West Indies

Probably still under-rated on account of losing to Zimbabwe a few months ago. Have the batting to chase any total however, and home ground advantage. Will build momentum if they can stay in contention, but must beat Sri Lanka.

Finalist: 14.8% Winner 6.0%


The OthersFormGames
9.Zimbabwe1853.041.17.0
10.Bangladesh1737.1-0.19.0
11.Ireland1580.7-10.918.5
12.Afghanistan1527.414.019.5

Zimbabwe

Travelled a long way to play less than 50 overs in the rain over two days. Unlike others, they weren't terribly unlucky, already falling behind a mammoth total against Sri Lanka and rolled for just 84 against New Zealand. Were impressive in the warm-ups though, which bodes well for the next couple of years.

Bangladesh

Expected to do better. The batting, as usual, failed to fire when it needed to, leaving them short of two difficult targets. Will be pleased that they competed well, but should be upset that they couldn't turn either game into a win.

Ireland

Flogged, horribly, in the first game. Their batting (obviously sans Morgan and Joyce) cannot do the job at this level, even if their bowling and fielding gives them a sniff. Were in a position to dislodge England when rain intervened, but can't have any complaints about being knocked out on NR-R.

Afghanistan

Undoubtedly the best non-test bowling lineup ever, boasting both balance and natural skill. Most of their attack could push for a place in any test side, with Hamid Hassan, Shapoor Zadran and Samiullah Shenwari looking particularly impressive. But as evidenced by recent collapses against light-weight associate nations, their batting is poor, and both South Africa and India were too good for them.

Idle Summers 7th May, 2010 15:20:43   [#] 

Comments