Ratings - 6th November 2011
Russell Degnan

Recent Results

Only TestZimbabwevNew Zealand
Pre-rating553.31885.38
Form-9.46-29.09
Expected MarginNew Zealand by 116 runs
Actual MarginNew Zealand by 34 runs
Post-rating556.62876.93

Zimbabwe may well rue that with better catching, cooler heads and a little more luck, they could have won all three tests since their comeback. They won plenty of admirers here for their spirited chase of a target that proved just out of reach, led by their captain, Taylor (117) but well supported throughtout the match by a top-6 that looks dependable, if nothing else. Their bowling was also reasonable even without Vitori; Jarvis keeping them in it with 5 second innings wickets. But beign better than expected is still not great, and they are still a step behind a weak New Zealand side, who failed to dominant the game, even if it was one they were generally on top of. Ross Taylor and Williamson provided the runs, and Vettori the bulk of the wickets before Bracewell chimed in with five on debut. An excellent game, and a good demonstration of the type of hard-fought and exciting cricket the weaker nations can produce, if only they had a reason to play more games against each other.


Forthcoming Series

3 TestsIndiavWest Indies
Pre-rating1111.89921.28
Form-62.14-9.20
Expected MarginIndia by 143 runs

A test series that ought to demonstrate that India remains a class above the teams in the middle of the test rankings. The West Indies played relatively well at home, but will be lucky to compete here, especially on the back of a disappointing tour of Bangladesh. The Indian media remains pre-occupied with pointless statistics, a further sign that cricket has lost its way, if it ever had it. After a difficult tour of England, several players need to prove that they still have something to offer, otherwise the process of rebuilding an aging lineup will have to start sooner than expected.

2 TestsSouth AfricavAustralia
Pre-rating1180.151133.16
Form+0.54-26.34
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 73 runs

Like the series above, one of cricket's oldest and strongest rivalries, now sadly devalued. Unlike the above, this devauling is caused not by a lack of on-field prowess, but by obstinate administration. In the past two decades, hardly a series between these two sides hasn't been close, and this will be no different. One-all is the likely result, though South Africa ought to win, and Australia will feel they continue to have the upper-hand. Conditions in both nations are sufficiently similar, and both play the same type of game, based around a strong pace attack, aggressive running, and athletic fielding. In all three areas, South Africa have the edge, in addition to the better spinner and the greater experience. Where Australia have the edge is the potential for one-off performances, from Hughes, Johnson, Marsh, even Ponting (whose recent form remains catastrophically bad) or their new bowlers: Cummins (if playing) and Lyons. On their last tour, Johnson and Hughes played in a manner not since seen; they'll need those performances again if they are to repeat.

Rankings at 6th November 2011
1.England1333.15
2.South Africa1180.15
3.Australia1133.16
4.India1111.89
5.Pakistan1051.68
6.Sri Lanka1036.39
7.West Indies921.28
8.New Zealand876.93
9.Bangladesh622.73
10.Zimbabwe556.62

11.Ireland559.06
12.Afghanistan514.53
13.Scotland437.45
14.Namibia407.53
15.Kenya338.92
16.U.S.A.296.99
17.Uganda268.44
18.U.A.E.219.51
19.Netherlands202.55
20.Nepal196.51
21.Canada154.58
22.Hong Kong148.65
23.Cayman Is134.24
24.Malaysia123.90
25.Bermuda105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Idle Summers 6th November, 2011 15:30:43   [#] 

Comments

Ratings - 6th November 2011
Hi Russ.
Just another Q on the rankings going into each match-up... what is the form no derived from? The change of rank pts in the immediate past, change totaled from the last 3 or 5 tests?

Cheers!
@TKYC  10th November, 2011 13:45:42  

Ratings - 6th November 2011
TKYC, Form and the other magic is explained here. To quote:

A team is no longer docked the entire preliminary ratings change. To allow the ratings to be more sensitive to changes in form, without making them erratic to off games (the West Indies massive loss to Pakistan in the late-80s stands out here), only half of the ratings change is added immediately. The other half, is added to a protected ratings table - often referred to as form, which it effectively measures.

If a team has a positive form, and receives points, they receive a quarter of their current form, in addition to half the rating change, and vice versa. Otherwise they receive only the ratings change. The protected rating is declined by 25% each game, plus half the preliminary rating change.

Form is therefore 3/4 of the form leading into the previous game, plus 1/2 the rating change in the previous game.


Russ  10th November, 2011 22:26:52