Short stat: 2013 Ashes Probabilities
Russell Degnan

Inspired by Fake Ritzy's ICC rankings based analysis of Australia's Ashes chances, I ran a monte-carlo simulation of the series using my own (25% draw probability, matching the historic English average).

Australia is a roughly 1 in 8 chance of winning, and a 1 in 8 chance of drawing. 3-1 England is the only scoreline returning a positive net return on the betting markets. Australia's most probable winning scoreline, 1-2, is very (very, very) slightly more likely than losing 5-0. Australia wins 5-0 in about 0.04% of series. I think Australia's Indian tour has caused their rating to under-estimate their chances. With a decent team selection there is grounds for no more than mild pessimism, but given Watson is locked in to open, things are very bleak. Very.

Idle Summers 29th June, 2013 01:13:21   [#] 

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